Shipper — Presentation
Transportation Market Update
Schneider publishes this regular transportation market update to keep you informed of freight market conditions, supply and demand influencers, and disruptions that may impact your supply chain.
This Market Review Update is intended to provide you with high-level macroeconomic and general industry data that may be relevant to your business. This update should not be used for any other purpose. This update does not state or imply anything about Schneider’s performance, results, operations, strategy, projections or plans. The purpose of this update is to relay statistical and relevant facts from various industry professionals. This update does not predict or forecast any economic or industry outcome or results. This update has been prepared on the basis of information made available by third parties; Schneider has not attempted to independently verify any such third-party information.
This report focuses overviews the Transportation Market. View the Market Update focusing on Mexico transportation here.
For the latest information on hurricane season and the impacts on supply chains, please see our weather-advisory page.
December 02, 2022 Update - Transportation Market Update Report
Outbound Tender Index Volumes Continue to Normalize After Turbulent Years
Outbound tender volumes represent demand for capacity in the origin area. An increase in volume represents an increase in demand.
Source: FreightWaves updated 11/23/22
This chart combines the current year-to-date trend with full year trends from 2018-2021. You will see consistent trends in reduced outbound tender volumes during holidays. More importantly, it shows the sustained length of time that record-level outbound tender volumes have remained.
Compared to the Outbound Tender Volume Index levels during this time in the previous three years, current OTVI is -28% lower than 2021, -33% lower than 2020, and 8% higher than 2019.
Thank you to our customers that attended this year!
We recently hosted a group of customers in Green Bay for our Customer Advisory Event. This is an annual event that allows our shippers the opportunity to learn more about market and industry trends, learn from each other and network. After our sessions, we enjoyed the Green Bay vs. Tennessee Titans football game together
In the News: 400 companies seek nearshoring opportunities in Mexico, but USMCA dispute needs to be resolved
According to the Economy Ministry, hundreds of companies are interested in relocating to Mexico owing to the country’s geographical proximity to the United States and to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Credit Suisse says in October alone, Mexico registered an investment of US $2.05 billion from nearshoring, and $17.2 billion so far this year – a 25.5% increase year over year.
But, recently the U.S. requested dispute settlement consultations with Mexico under the USMCA over a series of changes in Mexico’s energy policies. If the U.S. decides to call a dispute panel to rule on the energy policy dispute, the sanctions from such a decision could interfere with the nearshoring plans of the 400 companies interested in relocating.
In the News: U.S. imports from China falling faster than from other countries
- Throughout 2021, the index for bookings loaded in China was significantly higher than the index for all export destinations.
- The gap has narrowed since March and has now almost vanished, as the China-to-U.S. bookings index declined faster than the overall index.
Monthly market-share data highlights how the move toward import diversification predated the pandemic.
- In 2016-2018, China accounted for an average of 36% of U.S. import cargo tonnage, with the rest of Asia accounting for only 25%.
- China’s average monthly share was down to 31% in 2019, and the rest of Asia’s share had risen to 29%.
- In 2020-2021, they were even at 30% each.
In the News: California Looks to Ban Diesel Trucks at Ports by 2035
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is proposing phasing out older big rigs operating in the busy corridors shuttling shipping containers between ports, rail yards and warehouses and require that all new vehicles be powered by clean fuels starting in 2024.
The goal is to push more than 30,000 heavily-polluting trucks to clean energy by 2035. But trucking industry officials say there is a big gap between the target and the charging infrastructure that barely exists today and would take years to build. In addition, electric trucks cost 2-3 times more and are currently only capable of running shorter routes.
In the News: Schneider and other carriers expect little equipment market relief in 2023
Schneider National and other carriers noted they expect difficulty replacing aging vehicles to continue into 2023, during the recent Stephens Annual Investment Conference.
- Mark Rourke, president and CEO at Schneider, agreed with other carrier executives, saying that while his company may get some of the new equipment it needs next year, OEMs also must fulfill orders from other trucking companies.
- Data from FTR supports that idea. The research firm’s October report said component shortages remain a week-to-week issue, but “the overall sentiment from manufacturers is optimistic that improvements will be made in the coming months.”
ACT Research: Spot Rates Now Further Below Costs Than Ever Before
CT Research released the latest installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook report.
“This month's report focuses on the key question of how much further spot rates can decline and concerns about diesel shortages, which could hasten the bottoming process. Goods demand is soft, and destocking is just beginning, but lower freight costs are set to be a growing disinflationary force in 2023.”
- Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst
In the News: ACT Research sounds alarm on ‘bottoming’ trucking market
- Compared to 2021, diesel was 44% higher in the month of October, according to the Department of Energy. That’s the biggest contributor to rising costs for trucking fleets.
- The cost of parts and truck maintenance are also up from 2021, according to a July report from Truckstop.com.
- Meanwhile, according to the FreightWaves National Truckload Index, spot rates are down 23% year over year.
COVID-19 – Actions to maintain safety among drivers and customers
We continue to closely monitor information related to the COVID-19 outbreak and – as always – our priority is to protect the health and safety of our associates, our drivers, our customers, and the general public. Our crisis management team is continually monitoring the situation and is taking steps to ensure the wellness and safety of our associates.
Recognizing that our drivers are the backbone of our business, we are in regular communication through our driver support teams to ensure that they are well informed as to the environment they are operating in. Their safety and wellness are a top priority.
Your business is very important to us and we are happy to answer more questions related to specific worksites or regions should you have them.
For the latest information on COVID-19, please visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website.
Our associates and transportation experts are available to help with supply chain strategy and shipping needs to respond to the pandemic. You can count on Schneider to provide your business with the same exceptional service and timely support we’ve provided shippers for 85+ years.
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